Journal des maladies infectieuses et de la thérapie

Abstrait

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemics in Mainland China

Lequan Min

Background: Globally COVID-19 epidemics have caused tremendous disasters. China prevented effectively the spread of COVID-19 epidemics before 2022. Recently Omicron and Delta variants cause a surge in reported COVID-19 infections.

Methods: Using differential equations and real word data, this study modelings and simulates the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, from December 31 2021 to May 15 2022 estimates the transmission rates, recovery rates, and the blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, and the death rate of symptomatic individuals using visual simulations to predict the outcomes of the mainland China epidemics. The transmission rates and recovery rates of the foreign input COVID-19 infected individuals in mainland China have also been studied.

Results: The simulation results were in good agreement with the real word data. The recovery rates of the foreign input symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals are much higher than those of the mainland COVID-19 infected individuals. The blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic mainland infections are lower than those of the previous epidemics in mainland China. For the foreign input COVID-19 epidemics, the numbers of the current symptomatic individuals and the asymptomatic individuals charged in medical observations have decreased significantly after March 17 2022. Simulations predict that on Visual simulations predict that on day 160, the number of the current symptomatic individuals were between 605 and 1090; the number of the current asymptomatic individuals may be between 4088 and 7980; the number of the cumulative death symptomatic individuals may be between 615 and 624.

Conclusion: It needs to implement more strict prevention and control strategies to prevent the spread and the death rate of the COVID-19 epidemics in mainland China. Keeping the present prevention and therapy measures implemented during day 107 to day 115 to foreign input COVID-19 infections can rapidly reduce the number of foreign input infected individuals to a very low level.