Épidémiologie : libre accès

Abstrait

Herd Immunity without the Frail Sheep

Hamad Almutairi

Background: In 2020, a newly-discovered infectious viral disease, known as coronavirus disease, caused by the new COVID-19, became a pandemic, with no vaccine currently available. Many countries were not ready to face this pandemic crisis. With 3.4% mortality rate and the WHO risk assessment of the disease at the global level is very high, with 634,835 cases and 29,891 deaths reported as of this writing. Some approaches that are being applied to slow down the pandemic and ease pressure in hospitals and flattening the curve of the disease, include curfew and lockdown. However, even with all these measures being applied, the number of newly- discovered cases is still increasing, indicating that something is missing in this puzzle. If a new addition to the old concept of herd immunity is applied, would the number of deaths and death rate decrease? In this research, this method would be applied to the study of COVID-19 in Italy, Germany, Spain, France, the USA, and South Korea. This new concept would be called “herd immunity without the frail sheep,” in which vulnerable groups would be in quarantine or self-isolation while allowing herd immunity to take place with the rest of the population.

Methods: This is quantitative research in which the data (number of cases, number of deaths, rate of death) was collected from Statista and WHO. In order to indicate the effectiveness of this new concept with the current situation which is a mixed of unrestricted herd immunity and partial curfew.

Results: The findings lead us to conclusions that if the vulnerable group for any upcoming epidemic was isolated Quickly- such a move will significantly decrease both the number of fatalities and rate of death.

Discussion/conclusion: The concept of herd immunity without restriction and with no vaccine poses ethical dilemmas in terms of building community immunity on the shoulders of vulnerable groups. The reason behind conducting this study is to find a way in which society can continue to function with little interruption in the face of the pandemic while still protecting vulnerable groups.