Journal des sciences de la Terre et du changement climatique

Abstrait

Global Atmosphere, Temperature, Climate Outlook for 2100 and Beyond

Valone TF

Recent climate reports suggest a widely accepted range of one and a half (1.5°C) to two degrees (2°C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate change. This is in stark contrast to observationally informed projections of climate science underlying global warming. Leading climatologists have published details of the most likely outcome for 2100 of five to six-degree (5-6°C) increase as “most accurate” based on present trends, climate history and models. Average global temperature is found to be tightly correlated to CO₂ with a short temporal feedback loop. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO₂ values for the past 420,000 years, incorporated into “Hansen’s Graph” detail a discovery of accurate, predictive numerical values for global average temperature change and delayed sea level rise. These are compared to the latest climate model analysis and observational projections. The best-performing climate change models project more warming than the average model often relied upon. Hansen also accurately projected levels for 2019. A timeline for world atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond is analyzed. A CO₂ experiment analysis proves its dramatic heat-entrapment versus air and is also compared to the global atmospheric system. Further policy- relevant climate adaptation, including carbon capture, positive individual action, and zero emissions are reviewed.