Journal des sciences de la Terre et du changement climatique

Abstrait

Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential Distribution of Lantana camara

Neena Priyanka and Joshi PK

Climate change appears to be affecting global patterns of invasive species distribution. Forecasts based on ecological niche modeling suggest that greater impacts can be expected in the future. However, such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding the future climate conditions and invasion potential of a species. This study explores the relationship between climate change and potential distribution of Lantana camara in the National Parks of Jim Corbett and Rajaji (Uttarakhand, India). Using three representative climate change models viz., CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), CCCMA (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) and HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research’s General Circulation Model) across the time slices 2020 to 2080 under two regional climate change scenarios A2a and B2a, Lantana camara potential distribution models were derived. The model projections were in consensus that invasion range was likely to expand and infestation would be more severe under the A2a scenario indicating that the species may prefer warmer conditions. Taken together, the modeled results suggest that in the future, the two National Parks may be impacted largely by the gregarious presence of Lantana camara. Predictive models can provide resource managers with a tool for the early detection of invasive species and help circumvent negative ecological impacts resulting in substantial economic savings.