Journal des sciences de la Terre et du changement climatique

Abstrait

Analysis of Future Climate Scenarios over Central Uganda Cattle Corridor

Nimusiima A, Basalirwa CPK, Majaliwa JGM, Mbogga SM, Mwavu EN, Namaalwa J and Okello-Onen J

The study employed a Regional Climate Model (RCM), Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS), to examine the future climate scenarios over the central Uganda cattle corridor districts of Nakaseke and Nakasongola in the near future (2021-2050) and mid-century (2051-2080). The study was guided by two questions: what are the projected temperature and rainfall values for the central Uganda cattle corridor in relation to IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B Scenarios for the same periods; how do they compare with the new set of scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the same area for the same period? The scenarios were obtained using PRECIS software and delta methods using R software according to the AGMIP protocols for SRES and RCP; respectively. Results show both SRES A2 and A1B projecting temperature increases in average monthly, seasonal as well as annual for both near future and mid centuryperiods with A2 showing a mean annual temperature increase of 2.5 to 4.4°C in the near future and 4.5 to 6.0°C in the mid century relative to the 1981-2010 average compared to A1B which shows annual temperature increase of 0.7 -1.7°C in the near future and 1.7-3.5°C in the far future. The same trend is observed for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 but the increments are lower for the RCPs compared to the SRES. Projections for rainfall show a slight increase in annual rainfall in both SRES and RCPs. However more rainfall is projected for the second rainfall season of September to November compared to the usual known season of March to May (MAM). The projections also show a shift in rainfall with the usual dry season of December to February (DJF) now becoming wetter than the 1980-2010 average. This shift is consistent in all the scenarios and has also been observed in other studies done in the region. From the results farmers should be advised to take advantage of the projected increases in rainfall especially.