Journal des sciences de la Terre et du changement climatique

Abstrait

A Predictive Approach to Simulate Possible Impacts of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector

Gladden LA

The aim of this paper is to investigate the possible implications of climate change of maize and beans crop in the country of Belize. The approach utilized PRECIS and observed input data in combination with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) CROPWAT program. Six scenarios were predicted looking at Maximum Temperature (Tmax), Minimum Temperature (Tmin) and Rainfall for the years 2050-2055 along with observed data of similar climatic variables for the year 1998. The approach was use for three sites namely Towerhill which is located to the north of the country, Central Farm which is located at the center of the country and Toledo Research and Development Project Site (TRDP) which is located at the southernmost part of the country. The results showed that there was an increase in both maximum and minimum temperature at two of the three sites with the exception of the Towerhill site and there was a reduction in rainfall in all predicted scenario with the exception of Towerhill site in 2051 which exhibited a 4.28 % increase over the baseline scenario. The reference evapotranspiration ETo value illustrated more precisely the possible impact of climate change as there was an increase in of all ETo values at the three observation sites. In regards to yield percent reduction the scenarios determine that climate change would have an impact on crop yield. Where yield percent reduction was as high as 80.1% at the Central Farm site. The results determined that climate change will affect these crops, by validating this, more suitable strategies and mitigating programs can developed and established to assist Belize in the prevention of a future food crisis.